If you’re an Eagles fan like me, you know it’s been a daunting task to scroll through your Twitter timeline without seeing Philadelphia fans hyping Bijan Robinson to the Eagles. And while I know it’s all in good fun, I would be lying if I were to say it does not frustrate me to constantly see Robinson mocked to the Eagles. It’s never going to happen.
For one, Robinson does not provide positional value as a running back. There are two ways to look at positional value: (1) effect on the field and (2) surplus value. Running backs check the box for neither. On running plays, the yardage gained is largely determined by the amount of defenders in the box and the blocking of the offensive line, not the running back themselves.
Additionally, running backs provide little surplus value when drafted at 10. This chart above by Cash Over Cap displays the average of the top 10 highest paid salaries at every position. If you’re drafting with the 10th pick in the NFL draft, the average yearly cap hit for that player you draft is $5.0 million. Thus the goal is to find the biggest discrepancy between how much the top 10 salaries are paid and how little the player on a rookie deal costs.
For example, if you draft a top-10 wide receiver with the 10th pick, you are saving $20 million in cap space per year. A top-10 edge rusher would save $17 million per year. A top-10 defensive tackle would save $15 million per year. A top-10 running back would only save $7 million per year. This is a large part of the reason why running backs are drafted less often in the first round, and it’s part of the reason why the Eagles shouldn’t select Robinson at 10.
Drafting Robinson would also present schematic challenges for the Eagles. @TheHonestNFL on twitter recently explained that, “In order to use someone like Robinson’s abilities, Dallas Godert would have to protect a lot more”. And if Robinson and Godert are on the field together, “all a defense has to do is present pressure to get a protection check that would sacrifice the route of the RB or TE. Howie knows that, the coaches know that, and the league knows that. I’d rather use Godert every down.” If the Eagles drafted Bijan Robinson high, they would not only be overdrafting a low-value position, they’d also be taking away production from their elite tight end.
Why should the Eagles fans feel the need for an elite running back? Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell are all not elite, but have had elite production when given significant reps. This is largely because the Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL, the weight of Jalen Hurts as a runner, and a pass game that demands non-loaded boxes. Bijan Robinson, while a great player, won’t make much of a difference in this offense. As @TheHonestNFL puts it, “It makes no sense whatsoever to buy a Porsche to drive to McDonalds once a week.”