Who Does the Market Think the Eagles are Picking at 10?

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson released his NFL futures odds on who gets selected 10th overall by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2023 NFL draft. His following odds can be seen here:

PlayerCollegeOddsImplied Probability
Bijan RobinsonTexas+40020.0%
Devon WitherspoonIllinois+45018.2%
Lukas Van NessIowa+47517.4%
Nolan SmithGeorgia+47517.4%
Myles MurphyClemson+60014.3%
Christain GonzalesOregon+75011.8%
The FieldNS+40020.0%

Because the draft is so unpredictable and there is little betting emphasis on it for the NFL, there is a lot of money to be made on draft props. The Eagles are no exception. To begin with, the favorites in Bijan Robinson & Devon Witherspoon are highly unlikely picks. Howie Roseman has never drafted a running back or a cornerback in the first round of a draft. The positions are also not immediate needs for the Eagles. 

However, the market is right about the Eagles’ chances of taking an edge rusher at 10. As I wrote about here, there is a high likelihood the Eagles select an edge rusher in the first round based on prior draft-day decisions. Three of the five most likely players listed to go are edge rushers. There is an implied probability of 49.1% that one of Lukas Van-Ness, Myles Murphy, and Nolan Smith is picked at 10. 

Christian Gonzales at +750 is another unlikely bet. As I mentioned earlier, cornerback is not a need for the Eagles and it is a position they have never drafted in the first round before. Additionally, Christian Gonzales is quickly solidifying himself as the number 1 cornerback on most draft boards. The chances of the best cornerback falling to 10 in any modern NFL draft are super low. 

The best bet here is the field. Of the 6 players listed above, none are offensive linemen. Howie Roseman won’t draft an interior offensive linemen at 10, but he could go after an offensive tackle. Paris Johnson and Peter Skoronski are both great prospects, who can potentially fill in at right guard in their first few years before they kick out to tackle. Johnson has even been on a top 30 visit with Philadelphia, which has been a major indicator of who the Eagles have picked in recent years.

The field also does not include an interior defensive tackle. This is a major need for the Eagles. Without Javon Hargrave, the Eagles no longer have an elite pass rusher from the interior. The two defensive tackle prospects that can go here are Jalen Carter and Calijah Kancey. Carter was once a consensus top 5 pick, but with recent controversies, his draft stock is declining. As the days go on, the chances of Carter falling to ten become more likely. Kancey—on the other hand—was once a consensus late round pick. But after an excellent combine and with the Eagles’ need for a pass rushing defensive tackle, he could likely go at 10. 

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