The 2023 NFL draft is officially three days away. I’ve finally come to terms with how I feel about the Eagles pick at 10. In my opinion, there are four players the Eagles should take with the 10th overall pick: Nolan Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Paris Johnson, and Jalen Carter. If none of the four players mentioned above are available, the Eagles should trade back into the later stages of the first round. Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson would also be worthwhile picks, but their availability at 10 is highly unlikely so I left them off the list.
Nolan Smith
Many might consider Smith a reach at 10, but the upside absolutely justifies the pick. Smith has potential to become a 15 sack-season pass rusher. In fact, Smith’s most frequent player comp is Haason Reddick, so he’s going to fit the Eagles’ defensive scheme. The Eagles’ have also been remarkable at developing pass rushers in recent years. Javon Hargrave went from a nose tackle with the Steelers to one of the best interior pass rushers in the league with the Eagles. Haason Reddick—former linebacker—had a career year rushing the passer in his first season with Philadelphia. Edge Rusher is also a bigger need for the Eagles than most think. Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett only have one season left on their contracts, while Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick are both free agents after the 2024 season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
PFF data suggests that fourth receiving options have more correlation to an offense’s EPA per play in playoff games than first receiving options do. That means Quez Watkins had a greater impact on the Eagles EPA in the playoffs last year than AJ Brown did. Considering the fact that almost all of the Eagles losses last year included mishaps from Quez Watkins—fumble against Washington, responsible for an interception against Dallas, dropped pass in the Super Bowl—the data isn’t entirely surprising. For this reason, I’d opt to replace Watkins with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. How would defensive coordinators plan to stop an offense with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all on the field at the same time?
Paris Johnson
I absolutely love the idea of the Eagles drafting a tackle, playing him at guard for a year or two, then potentially kicking him out to tackle. The move would not only fill an immediate need at a low value position (guard), but would also fill a future need at a high value position (tackle). There are two guys who can fit that role for the Eagles in this draft: Paris Johnson and Peter Skornoski. Johnson has a better chance of becoming an elite tackle, while Skornski has a better chance of becoming an elite guard. I’d rather have a serviceable guard with elite tackle traits, than a serviceable tackle with elite guard traits, thus i’d much rather take Johnson over Skoronski.
Jalen Carter
The closer we get to the draft, the more confident I feel Jalen Carter will fall to the Eagles. Upon looking at draft scenarios, there’s really only two teams (the Lions and Bears) I can see selecting Carter before the Eagles pick. If he falls to 10, the pick would be a no brainer. Jalen Carter is the best player in this draft and I don’t think it’s close. He can line up anywhere on the interior D-line and still wreak havoc against both the pass & the run. There’s also a lot of reason to be optimistic that Carter will not have “character issues” once he comes to the Eagles. Philadelphia has a great group of veterans leaders who can show him how to be a true professional. Additionally, two of Carter’s former Georgia teammates and friends, Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis, are on the Eagles. If Carter comes to Philadelphia, he will have a fantastic support system around him.