The closer we get to the draft, the more I think Jalen Carter has a legitimate chance to fall to the Eagles. It sounds crazy to say that the draft’s consensus best player will fall to a team with the tenth pick, but I think there’s a good chance.
For one, the Eagles could very well likely not be the tenth team picking. Howie Roseman loves to trade up and has done so multiple times in the first round. In the 2021 and 2022 drafts, Roseman traded up for Devonta Smith and Jordan Davis respectively. Roseman also has the 3rd most draft trade-ups amongst all GMs since 2011. The most likely spot the Eagles trade up with is the Seahawks. Since 2011, Seattle’s general manager John Schenibeder has traded down 20 times. The only general manager to trade down more in that time period is Bill Belichek. The Eagles have a lot of 2023 draft capital to trade up to five if they want, and it would be on par with both Philadelphia’s and Seattle’s organizational tendencies.
The chances of the Eagles staying at 10 and landing Carter are not slim-to-none either. When looking at all nine teams picking before Philadelphia, there are really only two teams I see as a threat to take Carter—the Lions and the Bears. Granted, much of my outlook is based on rumors and projections of pre-draft interests, which is almost entirely a media-driven phenomenon, and not necessarily a reflection of the opinion of the NFL. Nobody really knows who the teams are picking but themselves. Still, this information can help us make an educated guess on who each team in the top 10 might be picking. The Panthers are selecting a quarterback. The Texans have only been mocked to take quarterbacks and edge rushers throughout this entire process. The Cardinals have also only been projected to take an edge when picking at 3. The Colts are taking a quarterback. The Seahawks are either taking a quarterback or edge, and are less likely to draft another defensive tackle after the free-agency addition of Dre’mont Jones. The Lions could take Carter. The Raiders are definitely not taking Carter after what happened to Henry Ruggs. The Falcons have only been projected to take Cornerbacks, edge rushers, and Bijan Robinson. The Bears could, and should absolutely take Carter.
As I stated earlier, there are only two teams that are likely to have great interest in Carter. However, there are also a number of teams that could have interest in Carter that might not have been projected throughout the pre-draft process. Perhaps one of the Cardinals, Falcons, or Colts have hidden their interest in Carter all this time. Factoring all of this in, I believe that Jalen Carter has about a 30% chance of falling to the Eagles.